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University grads, skilled workers to fill bulk of new jobs: forecast

Where the hot jobs are

The Canadian labour market has been given a clean bill of health from federal government forecasters, who predict the economy will create 1.9 million new jobs over the next decade. But the bulk of want ads will be generated by retiring baby boomers and most will require post-secondary education.

LINDA WHITE

[ 2007-08-14 ]

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According to the report, Looking-Ahead: A 10-Year Outlook for the Canadian Labour Market (2006-2015), recently fine tuned, 65.9% of job openings resulting from expansion or retirements will be in management or in occupations requiring university, college or apprenticeship training.

University graduates stand to reap the highest rewards of the shift towards a knowledge-based economy and increased government spending in health care. Highly-skilled occupations will account for 70% of all new jobs created through 2015 -- up 10% over the last decade. In contrast, employment growth in the lowest-skilled occupations, that require just on-the-job training, will be much weaker.

Increasingly, Canada's workers will be well educated in the years to come, particularly as they replace less educated, older workers. University grads accounted for 13.8% of the labour force in 1990, a number that increased to 21.8% in 2005 and is expected to reach 24.4% in 2015. "On the other hand, the labour force with less than high school education is expected to continue to decline by an average of 1% a year," states the report.

In addition to providing information on how many jobs will be created and the education required for new positions, the 10-year outlook predicts the industries and occupations in which new jobs will emerge and which occupations are in highest demand. The following are among its highlights:

- The current labour market is quite healthy. After struggling for the greater part of the 1990s, employment has grown at an average annual rate of 2% over the past decade and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.1% in May 2006.

- The labour market is expected to remain buoyant. Total employment is set to grow from 16.2 million in 2005 to 18.1 million in 2015 -- an average annual growth rate of 1.1%. Employment growth will be much stronger in the first five-year period, creating about 1.2 million new jobs.

- No widespread labour shortages are expected to emerge over the next 10 years.

- Service-producing industries will lead the charge in new job creation, the report predicts. With anticipated growth of 1.2%, it will outpace the goods-producing sector, which is expected to grow 0.8%.

Among services, new job growth will be especially strong in the health, computer system design and professional services sectors. Within the goods-producing sector, high energy prices will continue to boost investment spending and output in the oil and gas sector.

The majority of job openings until 2015 -- a whopping 70% -- will stem from the need to replace retired workers. That's up from an average of 51% over the last decade.