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Service industries to lead charge in new job creationWhat's hot, what's notIt's not quite like looking into a crystal ball, but the federal government's 10-year labour market forecast is the next best thing to predicting what jobs will be in demand and which will be in decline over the next decade. |
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 [ 2007-08-29 ] |
In that time, the economy is expected to churn out about 1.9 million new jobs. According to the report, Looking-Ahead: A 10-Year Outlook for the Canadian Labour Market (2006-2015), most of those jobs will be in the service sector, which will continue to outpace the goods-producing sector.
STRONG GROWTH
Among service industries, employment growth through 2015 is expected to be strongest in computer system design, health, and professional services. Some service industries, however, will experience below-average employment growth, namely: public administration; the finance, insurance, real estate and leasing sectors; and the education sector.
"Shortage pressures among human resources and business service professionals are expected to continue, as employers continue to place greater emphasis on recruiting and retaining quality employees to handle the increasingly-complex jobs of our economy," states the report.
The report predicts a better balance between labour demand and supply in residential construction and real estate sectors, because of an expected slowdown in residential investment after the recent boom. But civil engineers and residential home builders and renovators stand to reap the rewards of non-residential construction projects -- including projects for the 2010 Olympics in British Columbia -- and in renovation.
Within the goods-producing sector, high energy prices will continue to boost investment spending and output in the oil and gas sector. Capital-spending projects like the tar sands development in Alberta, will push demand for oil and gas well drillers, servicers and other related workers.
Computer and electronic products, transportation equipment (especially aerospace) and fabricated metals manufacturing industries stand to benefit from global demand and high corporate profits.
But the auto and parts sector is expected to struggle under the weight of reduced demand for automobiles across North America. The forestry industry and woods products manufacturing industry will also slump, as residential construction slows, the report predicts.
However, manufacturers are expected to become increasingly efficient in the coming years in order to remain competitive in the face of the strong Canadian dollar and intense international competition.
Of the six million people expected to enter the Canadian labour market through 2015, the bulk -- 80% -- will come from the education system and just 20% will be the result of immigration.
More than two-thirds of all new jobs will be in occupations that typically require post-secondary education or in management, the report predicts.
Already, supply is exceeding demand in many low-skilled categories and that trend is expected to continue.
The need for office equipment operators, for example, is on the decline, primarily because of technological advances. Likewise, the demand for machine operators in textile processing and industrial sewing machine operators is dropping, largely due to international competition.
10-YEAR OUTLOOK QUICK FACTS
According to the report, Looking-Ahead: A 10-Year Outlook for the Canadian Labour Market (2006-2015), the bulk of occupations showing signs of shortages are in management and health care. Demand is particularly high for physicians, therapy and assessment professionals (such as physiotherapists), head nurses and nurse aides.
Within health care, demand is also growing for registered nursing assistants and audiology, physiotherapy, and medical radiation technicians. Other occupations showing signs of shortages are those related to oil and gas drilling and services, home builders and renovators, trades contractors and supervisors, computer engineers and software engineers.
Would you ever work for a social or charitable enterprise in the third sector?