Market Trends
Employment Trends for 2009-2010:
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 [ 2009-03-02 ] |
In industries like manufacturing and transportation, statistics and expert opinions suggest that job prospects don’t look promising for the next two years. A few companies may find their legs and recover again, but others could be in for a longer-term slump.
Manufacturing
The manufacturing industry is in a rut. Some say it may never recover. Jobs in the sector dropped by 2.1% from September 2007 to September 2008 alone, according to Statistics Canada. Quebec and Ontario have been the hardest hit by the downturn, says Paul Ferley, assistant chief economist at RBC Financial Group. “That’s where manufacturing is concentrated within Canada.”“The manufacturing sector has been shedding jobs since 2004. We’ve lost our competitive edge to companies that are more productive in other parts of the world,” says BMO Capital Markets economist Robert Kavcic. He explains that a number of reasons, including the rise of the Canadian dollar, higher energy prices and higher labour costs, are behind this plunge. Decreased trade with the U.S. (Canada’s biggest trading partner) and its sluggish economy doesn’t help, Export Development Canada chief economist Peter Hall says. “If we were exposed to emerging markets, we would be more resilient. But we rely heavily on the United States... and we find it very hard to soar when the U.S. economy is under as much duress as it’s under now.”
The auto industry has been the most affected by job losses. According to Statistics Canada and the Canadian Auto Workers Union, Ontario’s auto manufacturing and auto parts industry has lost 36,000 jobs since 2002. GM closed one of its two Oshawa car plants and the Windsor transmission plant. Ford has shut two Windsor-area engine operations. GM’s Windsor transmission plant will be closed in 2010, eliminating 1,400 jobs. Hall says the auto industry isn’t the only part of the manufacturing sector to be suffering. “Anything with high labour content: clothing, furniture. We won’t see a whole lot of bounce [back] in 2009 either,” says Hall.
However, Canadian Labour Congress senior economist Sylvain Schetagne says innovation could be the answer to the auto industry’s problems. “We might not make the products that we once did, but we need to look at more sustainable products,” he says. “For example, there might not be a need for big trucks, but perhaps there are small cars that can be built in Ontario and sell well. Electric cars in Quebec and British Columbia are another option.”
Are there exceptions? Companies that manufacture goods for the natural resources sectors, such as oil and natural gas, are faring better, says Byrne Luft, Manpower Inc.’s vice president of marketing. And, according to Human Resources and Social Development Canada, job growth is expected to continue for companies that produce computer and electronic products, aerospace parts and products, metal products and machinery. It’s cheaper to make and ship them within Canada than it is to transport them from overseas, Luft comments.
Transportation
Due to rising fuel costs, airlines are no longer flying high. Earlier this year Air Canada announced plans to cut more than 2,000 jobs. Hall thinks the shipping and rail industries could also be in for rough ride. Schetagne agrees. He says that during times of economic downturns, people spend less money on goods and services, cutting out what they consider to be luxuries. Decreased consumption translates into a need to transport fewer goods.
Unskilled labour
In the next 10 years nearly 1.5 million job openings are expected in positions that normally require only a high school diploma. This includes such jobs as bus drivers, finance and insurance clerks.However, the continuing march towards a knowledge-based economy could leave behind unskilled workers, particularly those who work in sectors related to manufacturing and sales. There will be fewer jobs for people who only have a high school diploma or positions that only require on-the-job training. According to a report by Human Resources and Social Development Canada, about two-thirds of future job openings will be for positions that require a college or university education or apprenticeship training. The number of jobs that require a university diploma is expected to grow about 1.6% a year. But positions that require only on-the-job training are predicted to increase only 0.6% a year.
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